Monday, April 13, 2009

The End


And, much like the Oilers' season, my time here is finished. Unlike the Oilers though, I'm a long way from being finished.

This will be the final post on this blog, because as of today it's moving to the Sports Blog Nation family of blogs at a new site: www.coppernblue.com. I hope you guys all follow me to the new location, which is sharp-looking and has a whole bunch of very cool tools. In addition, they're affiliated with both Yahoo and NHL.com, and I'm very excited to see where things go from here. Plus, the head of the NHL wing of SBNation is none other than James Mirtle, so I know that the group is in excellent hands.

Thanks to everyone who has read this site over the past year, and we will see you over there!

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Cutting The Captain Some Slack


In Joanne Ireland's column today, she reveals something about Ethan Moreau that hasn't been common knowledge - he's been playing with a broken hand since December (h/t to Bringing Back The Glory).

Moreau's had an up and down season; many (including myself) have been harshly critical of the sheer volume of senseless penalties he takes. This is fair criticism. He's also been outchanced at even-strength, has an ugly Corsi number (along with the usually reliable Pisani) and has said some funny things for a team captain.

On the other hand, he has been playing tough competition all season long, often in unfavourable circumstances and with underqualified linemates. He's also been a consistently physical presence on a team that occasionally lacks that quality.

So, while I tend to agree with Shepso at Bringing Back the Glory that it's incredibly frustrating to watch an injured player put into tough situations night in and night out while useful parts in Dustin Penner, Marc Pouliot, Kyle Brodziak and Robert Nilsson are relegated to lesser roles or the sidelines, there's a positive upside to all this - namely, that Ethan Moreau's performance could plausibly improve by a significant margin next season.

And if that improvement can turn the captain into a physical player who holds his own at even strength against tough opposition, he could be a very useful part of this team going forward. If the amount of attention his reckless penalties have gotten this season motivates him to change his ways (and to my eye he did improve in this area down the stretch), he may even be a player that I applaud next season.

Just Play The Kids...



Taylor Chorney got his NHL debut in the second-last game of the season, and he played again last night. He had the worst plus/minus on the Springfield Falcons at -29, and it seemed obvious he wasn't ready for the NHL. With the season already over, the Oilers decided to give him a quick look.

  • 2GP - 0G - 0A - 0PTS, -4
The worst plus/minus mark on the Oilers is Patrick O'Sullivan's -7. The worst mark by a defenseman is Ladislav Smid's -6. In two games, Taylor Chorney moved himself almost to the bottom of the pile. It's a small sample, but it jives with his AHL numbers, and shows the difficulties most prospects have adapting to the professional game.

Jeff Deslauriers also got shelled last night, after playing very well the night before. Here are his numbers on the season:

  • 10GP - 4W - 3L - 0OTL, 3.34 GAA, .901 SV%

That shouldn't be a surprise; he put up a .906 SV% in his AHL conditioning stint and in his best year (last season) he put up a .912 SV% in the AHL. After his good game against Calgary in game #81 of the season, I read in a few different places that Deslauriers should get 50% of the starts next season.

There's a simple rule that I like to follow when making decisions like this: prospects who are average or below average in the AHL very rarely turn out to be immediately good in the NHL, no matter how nice it would be if they did. It amazes me how few people understand that.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Poverty

There was a time when Doug Weight was easily the most important player on the Edmonton Oilers. He was the team captain, and its leading scorer – in his final year with the club, Weight’s 90 points were 20 ahead of the next closest player (Ryan Smyth).

At one point, Weight was the best player on a pretty good first line – he played with Bill Guerin and Ryan Smyth, and the biggest concern the Oilers had was that they were only a one-line club offensively, as a series of failed experiments (Pat Falloon, Alexander Selivanov, Sergei Zholtok and Dan Cleary to name a few) came and went on the second line.

To close out his time in Edmonton, Doug Weight played between Cleary and Zholtok while Mike Comrie centred a soft-minutes scoring line with Anson Carter and Ryan Smyth.

In the summer of 2001, Weight was sent away to St. Louis for Jochen Hecht, Marty Reasoner, and prospect Jan Voracek. He was soon to be a free agent, and Edmonton couldn’t afford him. It was perhaps the definitive mark of the EIG’s time in control of the Oilers – many good players were sent away (including both of Weight’s best wingers, Guerin and Smyth) because of money issues.

One of the best things about Daryl Katz’s purchase of the team was the promise that there would be no more complaining about money; the owner was wealthy, and wanted to see a winning team.


Even if that’s true, he’s not above pleading poverty to get his way, and maybe things haven’t changed so much since the days of the EIG – he even uses the same spokesman. Some quotes from Patrick Laforge in today’s Calgary Herals:

However, the drop in the value of the loonie took about a $6-million chunk out of the revenue stream, says Oilers president Patrick LaForge.

"That really bites into what you have for other things," says LaForge. "We've had to make adjustments on expenses elsewhere when we could."


A 6-million dollar drop (assuming we can believe the Oilers’ figures) is hardly chump change. On the other hand, the Herald sites a Forbes magazine report which pegged the team’s revenue as 85-million dollars and their expenses as 63.8 million dollars. That’s still quite the profit margin (a little over 21 million dollars). If we accept the Forbes figures and subtract Laforge’s 6 million, the Oilers still made a profit of about 15 million dollars.

LaForge says not making the playoffs won't break the team, but a couple home games would've bumped up the bottom line. In the longer term, the team's financial fortunes seem to be tied to hopes of building a new arena…

"We have the smallest arena in the NHL. We are the least equipped to serve our customers and in-house clients," says LaForge. "We want an arena that's bigger and better with more things to do."
(bolding mine)

Maybe we’re past the days of players leaving town because the Oilers can’t afford to pay them. But we certainly aren’t past the days of Patrick Laforge (undoubtedly under ownership’s direction) citing impending financial ruin to squeeze whatever he can out of the fans and out of the city.

Perugini Injured

The Stockton Thunder played their first playoff game last night. They're the only team under the Oilers' umbrella to make the post-season, with both Springfield and Edmonton out of the picture, and it doesn't seem likely that they'll make it out of the first round.

Halfway through last night's game, Stockton lost their starting goaltender, Andrew Perugini. It's a right leg injury, and at this point it is uncertain how sever the injury is, but Perugini could not finish the game and will be re-evaluated today.

Perugini has easily been the best goaltender on Stockton's roster; here's a quick comparison between him and backup Bryan Pitton:

Perugini: 21-13-3, 2.81 GAA, .908 SV%
Pitton: 9-19-3, 3.39 GAA, .886 SV%

Last night, Perugini allowed 2 goals against on 19 shots. Pitton allowed 2 in the 10 shots he faced in relief. There's a big difference in their relative levels of ability, and it may cost Stockton a chance to advance in the playoffs.

Getting past the comparatively minor issue of Stockton's post-season, the real question is how serious this injury is and what sort of repercussions it will have on Perugini's career.

Friday, April 10, 2009

MacTavish and Roloson

The way I understand it, there are still people out there who doubt Lowetide's frequesnt assertion that Criag MacTavish will easily get another NHL job once his time in Edmonton officially ends. Familiarity breeds contempt, I suppose, so perhaps that's the reason why many Oilers' fans don't give him the credit he's deserved after his work with many Oilers teams - the group last year certianly over-achieved, like others during his time here.

The respect that the hockey world as a whole has for MacTavish was reinforced by a Sun Media report today:

At the same time Craig MacTavish is contemplating turning in his resignation as coach of the Edmonton Oilers, Sun Media has learned he is about to be asked to consider becoming head coach of Team Canada at the world hockey championship in Switzerland.

"We have him on our short list," Hockey Canada president Bob Nicholson said. "Craig certainly has a shot. He's definitely in the mix."


According to the report, that short list consists of MacTavish, Lindy Ruff in Buffalo and Barry Trotz in Nashville. That isn't a bad group to be counted among.

As for Dwayne Roloson, we've been reading things over the last month that indicated the Oilers were strongly leaning towards bringing him back for at least another season.

Jim Matheson's column today quotes Roloson as saying that he felt he could play "another three or four years," and further suggests that a two-year contract would be a good length.

Even more frightening, Matheson says that those two years would give the Oilers "time to see if Deslauriers can take over." I hope that Matheson's speculating here, but given his contacts within the organization it is impossible to be sure.

I do know this - if I were in charge, I'd do two things:

1) Do everything possible to get Roloson back on one-year contracts only.
2) Get him a backup that the coach can have confidence in.

I actually really like Jeff Deslauriers; he's been badly mismanaged and suffered through some awful developmental years for a team that didn't make development a priority. But the bottom line is that the Oilers cannot afford to have a question mark in net behind their 40-year old goaltender. It's too big of a gamble.

So I'd argue that if Roloson is coming back, Deslauriers should be sent on his way and a veteran option (from the Jason Labarbera class) should be brought in to serve as a 1B goaltender.

Thursday, April 09, 2009

Turnover

The idea that the Oilers need to make significant roster changes seems firmly ensconced in the minds of both the media and Oilers fans. One example is Adam Proteau's latest piece in the Edmonton Metro News:

What I will be fault [Oilers fans] for is continued faith this summer that the current group of Oilers management and players will guide them out of the muck and toward consistent Stanley Cup contention. Miss the playoffs one year, and perhaps you can blame bad luck for it. Miss the playoffs two straight years, and maybe you can add “key injuries” to the list of excuses as to why you just weren’t good enough. However, miss the playoffs three straight years, and you’ve officially got an overestimated collection of players on your hands. And no amount of text messages, tweets, or carrier pigeon notes sent by owner Darryl Katz can convince me otherwise.


A team that misses the playoffs three straight years without changes, is simply not good enough - that seems like a fair assertion to me. Proteau continues with his vision of the Oilers' work this summer:

Now, that’s not to say they should “blow it up” and start from scratch. Nevertheless, if at least 25 per cent of Edmonton’s roster hasn’t been reshaped significantly by the team’s next training camp, you can expect the Oilers to finish next season the same way they finished this year.


This is all based on a false premise, though - the notion that the Oilers who missed the playoffs this season are the same Oilers who missed the playoffs in 2006-07. Let's revisit that roster, and note how it's changed (players ranked by total points, only players with 10+ games included):




Ryan Smyth - gone
Petr Sykora - gone
Ales Hemsky
Shawn Horcoff
Jarret Stoll - gone
Raffi Torres - gone
Joffrey Lupul - gone
Fernando Pisani
Marc-Andre Bergeron - gone
Marty Reasoner - gone
Steve Staios
Patrick Thoreson - gone
Toby Petersen - gone
Daniel Tjarnqvist - gone
Marc-Antoine Pouliot
Jason Smith - gone
Ladislav Smid
Matt Greene - gone
Brad Winchester - gone
Jan Hejda - gone
Tom Gilbert
Peter Nedved - gone
Dwayne Roloson
Mathieu Roy - in the minors
Zack Stortini
Danny Syvret - gone
Bryan Young - gone
Jussi Markkanen - gone
Jean-Francois Jacques

So, of the 29 players to appear in more than 10 games with the Oilers in 2006-07, how many are not currently on the roster? 19.

That means that since 2006-07, 66% of the roster - two out of every three players - has been turned over. That's not just 25% change; that's 33% change every year! In other words, the idea that this Oilers team has been static and needs to change that pattern is manifestly false.

Of course, the Oilers will likely make significant roster changes this summer, but I'm not convinced that they are necessary - this is a team with a young, talented core that will continue to get better. I'm not arguing for the status quo, but I think some incremental change is probably the best course of action at this point. When 2 out of every 3 players are gone from a team in just two years, the time for massive overhauling should be over.