My post yesterday still left doubters in its wake. Surely, it has been argued, the current group of defensemen will be sufficient to make the playoffs. They're young, talented, and getting better with age and experience. The whole team improved towards the end of last season.This has been argued elsewhere (Mc79hockey?) but I really don't believe the Edmonton Oilers were as good as their record last season. Lowe's constant talk about getting another top-6 forward makes me think that he too sees the need for improvement (with special goggles, perhaps even Prendergast could see the holes in the roster).
I had originally intended to focus solely on defensive statistics, but after reviewing the data, I think it might be nice to point out all the problems that this team's shootout record (among other things) obscured last season.
Without further ado, here are some fun team statistics, all from NHL.com.
Goals against per game: 3.01 (26th in the league, 14th in the West)
5-on-5 Goals For/Goals Against Ratio: 0.86 (27th in the league, 14th in the West)
Powerplay: 16.6% (21st in the league, 11th in the West)
Shots/Game: 26.3 (28th in the league, 14th in the West)
Shots against/Game: 31.4 (25th in the league, 14th in the West)
Winning Percentage in 1-Goal Games: .641 (1st in the league)
Now, over at Mc79hockey, there have been a bunch of very interesting discussions about the value of shots for/shots against in determining how likely a team is to win hockey games. My personal opinion, based on those discussions (largely because of Bruce's arguments), is that there is some correlation between outshooting opponents and winning games, but some teams (like the Oilers) have always won despite being outshot. That said, I don't think being consistently outshot by 5 shots/game is a healthy situation for the team to be in.
I did cherry-pick statistics, ignoring a very strong penalty-kill, because it's an area where the Oilers could conceivably win the Stanley Cup with the status quo; there isn't any real need to change things there, although I think it could improve (certain players, notably Smid and Greene, had poor performances over the course of the season).
Still, I find it hard to believe the sheer number of Oilers fans who are content going into next season with the same defense, a defense that finished ahead of only the Los Angeles Kings in the Western Conference in terms of goals against, and a team that scored only .86 goals for every goal they allowed, again ahead of only LA in the West. Yes, players will improve naturally; the majority of the blue-line is on the upswing, but will it really improve enough to compete for a playoff spot? And, with the rumours of Pitkanen leaving town in a trade for a forward, can anyone really see this defense, minus its most talented player, being good enough to secure a playoff spot? I certainly can't.
10 Comments:
I totally agree. I was just thinking about this a second ago when I was on LT's site commenting on how hard it would be to replace Pitkanen. There isnt much for comparable UFAs. However, Lowe has shown the ability to find defenders so it makes the discussion interesting.
I haven't done the research but I'd wager our defensive numbers took a beating once Horcoff got injured and we decided to open it up and let the kids play shiny.
Can anyone really see this defense, minus its most talented player, being good enough to secure a playoff spot?
This has too many variables.
1) Who do we get back (Spezza=upgrade, Cole=downgrade)
2) Can Souray be healthy enough to replace Pitkanens minutes
3) Are Gilbert, Grebs, Gagner, Cogliano and Nilsson for real
I think the Oilers are playoff bound next season because of #3. Pitkanen didnt exactly have the greatest season last year so we aren't talking about replacing Pronger here. The problem is, even in an off season, he was able to play in the top pairing for 25 minutes a game. And we dont really have anyone who can handle his minutes.
If you strip out the first 20 games, our PP was probably 18% or greater.
In the last 40 the PP was probably around 23% (all estimates). Only a handful of teams were better in the latter half. We were simply on fire in the last 30-35 games.
The powerplay over the final 41 games of the season scored 34 times in 165 opportunities= 20.6%
The flip side of this is that over the first 41 games the powerplay ran at 12.6%.
While I tend to believe that the last 40 games are a better indication for next season than the first, I don't think that it is better by a lot. Plenty of teams go on late-season runs and then fail to repeat the next season (for example, Florida, virtually every year).
Well, I'd rather that the Oilers don't rush "trying to win."
I know that they desperately want the elusive "One-Shot-Scorer(tm)" but I think they need another steady as she goes year.
Put Pitkanen on 1 1-year. Make decisions re: Raffi vs Glencross; Stoll-Poliout vs Pouliot-Reasoner. Get back some talent depth in the AHL. Trade Matt Greene.
Run:
Penner-Horc-Hemsky vs the toughs
Moreau-Stoll/Pouliot/Reasoner-Pisani vs the the middle
Nillson-Cogliano-Gagner vs the soft
Torres/Glencross-Brodziak-Stortini as the e-line.
Reasoner as the extra man?
Pitkanen-Staios
Gebeshkov-Gilbert
Souray-Smid
Make the Pitkanen/Grebshkov decision mid-year or after the year, when you know how Wild/Chorney/Hrabel are doing. Trade one of those tasty prospects, one of Pit/Greb for the forward player of interest.
I think even if one or two of those sophomores slump or get injured, there is enough in the can to get them to a spot.
This is not the year to "go-for-it(R)". Then, with a positive year behind them, do one of:
- trade one of those tasty, but about to be paid D (Greb/Pit) and a nice prospect D from Hrabel/Wild/Chorney for a top-six forward
- or let Souray pimp his numbers on the PP and third pair, and ask him to waive his NMC in the 09 offseason and keep both Greb and Pit
- and acquire the calm veteran D in exchange for some more of the forward depth (1 or 2 of the forwards who have to go to make space for the new top-six forward -- say Moreau and Pouliot/Brodziak).
Re-sign Horc and make him the captain.
Ya Jonathan, I've seen the Oilers go on late season runs at least 4-5 times now. I think this team is different but I've said that before.
The powerplay over the final 41 games of the season scored 34 times in 165 opportunities= 20.6%
While I tend to believe that the last 40 games are a better indication for next season than the first, I don't think that it is better by a lot.
There's some mighty nice pieces which are still being put together. Gagner shone when given Horcoff's minutes and statistically was a clear improvement (6.93 GF ON/60 vs. 5.43). Hemsky, Penner and Stoll all posted pretty decent numbers; I thought Penner in particular became more of a PP force as the season went on, both as a finisher and an effective screen.
We never did see Gagner + Souray to speak of, but with Hemsky and Gagner both capable of making the Kovalev-style cross-seam passes Sheldon will be a huge threat. I see no reason why Oilers powerplay shouldn't be somewhere in the Top 10 and a relative strength where perennially we have had weakness.
Trade Matt Greene.
For what? A shipment of Sherwood Sure-Shots? By all means get more talent depth in the AHL -- indeed, that appears to be a fait accompli -- but Greene provides depth at the NHL level.
I don't understand why so many folks are simply proposing we get rid of Matt as if it would be addition by subtraction. We've already made the 150-GP down payment on him, and while there's no doubt he needed to improve there's equally no doubt that he has. He still has a ways to go but I'm comfortable with the progression of his career curve. If he's indeed 7th on the depth chart as some suggest, to me that means we're in pretty good shape.
Well, I'd rather that the Oilers don't rush "trying to win."
I know that they desperately want the elusive "One-Shot-Scorer(tm)" but I think they need another steady as she goes year.
I'd be fine with that, but I think Lowe is under pressure to do something now given the ownership situation and his mixed track record.
Personally, I'm not in a huge hurry, but then again, I don't make 1 mil+ per home playoff game either.
I don't understand why so many folks are simply proposing we get rid of Matt as if it would be addition by subtraction. We've already made the 150-GP down payment on him, and while there's no doubt he needed to improve there's equally no doubt that he has. He still has a ways to go but I'm comfortable with the progression of his career curve. If he's indeed 7th on the depth chart as some suggest, to me that means we're in pretty good shape.
I like Matt Greene just fine, which is something I rarely make clear. However, we aren't an established team breaking in 1 or 2 defensemen. We're a rebuilding team with 5 (Pitkanen, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, Smid, Greene) guys who are still relatively early in their developmental curves. Even removing Pitkanen and Gilbert, that's three relatively unestablished guys competing for seven spots.
I just don't like Greene over Smid or Grebeshkov. Grebs is a different skillset, and if Lowe decides we need Greene's particular attributes more than we need Grebeshkov's, I'm fine with that.
What I'm not fine with is keeping Greene over Smid, a 22-yr old who will probably never have much of an offensive game but who has shown more ability at a younger age.
There isn't anything wrong with Greene, but a choice needs to be made soon, and I think he's the odd man out.
bruce,
I don't have a particular hate on for Matt Greene either, but the inbound veteran needs his spot. Keep him another year,sure -- but his trade value would be hurt by him sitting in the press box in 08-09. Because I wouldn't play him over the 6 in front of him.
His 150GP down payment aside, they have attempted to push Greene up into top 4 a few times now -- and with spectacularly bad results. I'm just not sure he ever gets there.
Smid added a far more physical edge to his game, he won't pump his offensive game so he won't cost too much -- and he is a better skater and passer than Greene. They have to choose between the two at the end of 09 so do it before HSing Greene hurts the asset value.
Even removing Pitkanen and Gilbert, that's three relatively unestablished guys competing for seven spots.
Firstly, I wouldn't remove Gilbert, who at 94 GP is the least NHL-experienced guy of the lot. Pitkanen at 269 GP is certainly established.
Let's look at the other four:
Greene 151 GP (46 in 2007-08)
Smid 142 GP (65)
Grebeshkov 104 GP (71)
Gilbert 94 (82)
That's 491 GP as a group, more than half (264 GP) of which occurred in 2007-08. Think about that for a sec; those FOUR guys played more games this past season than they previously had played in their careers. That's a lot of growing pains in one season, but to my eye three of the four guys were improving as the season went along, and to managements eye the fourth was worth a $24 MM contract. I kind of like where we're at.
Interesting to see the inverse relationship between GP this year to career totals, but that can be attributed largely to injuries to Greene and Smid. Bottom line was that even within that inexperinced group, the least experienced guys played the most.
What I'm not fine with is keeping Greene over Smid
I'm not particularly fine with that either, but at this point my preference is to keep both of them. They held their own as a third pairing down the stretch, and can be expected to do that and more as a projected 6-7. If/when somebody gets hurt, as happened with Souray this year, we have a young veteran on tap to put in his spot. Given the promising prospects are likely a year away from an extended stay in the bigs, we want to be at least 7 deep, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Matthiew Roy develop some sort of lingering groin injury at the end of training camp.
OTOH, if Pitkanen gets traded/raided then absolutely we need to bring in an experienced defender from elsewhere, either a FA or a trade. My worry isn't so much 2 and 5 as with Souray-Gilbert-Staios-Grebs as a top four. Too many question marks, not enough depth.
We're growing a team here, and the more parts we can develop and keep from within the system the tighter the team is. Exact same thing applies to Brodziak, Pouliot, Cogliano, Stortini ...
Patience ... patience ... patience ...
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