Marian Hossa is a guy that is widely regarded as the cream of the UFA crop this season, and as such, will be getting a salary a 7M+/yr, and likely for a term that is way too long. It's a nice situation for a player who only managed 66 points this past season. Still, Hossa is a very good player.
Hossa averaged 21:21 minutes of icetime per game this season, playing in all situations . 14:19 at even strength, 2:28 shorthanded, and 4:33 on the powerplay. How well did he produce?
At even strength, Hossa played the 3rd most difficult opposition (tied with Malone). He averaged 2.07 PTS/60 (Hemsky, by way of comparison, managed 2.36) and, even though he spent the majority of the year on a lousy Thrashers team, there isn't much excuse for finishing with a 2.49GFON/60 and a 3.16GAON/60 if you're about to be paid like a superstar. To be honest, I'm rather surprised by how poor his numbers were (they were much better in 2006-07, playing similar opponents).
On the powerplay, Hossa again wasn't anything special. He averaged 3.98 PTS/60, and the powerplay only scored 5.96 GFON/60 while allowing 1.19 GAON/60. These are not impressive numbers, even if we allow that Atlanta had a poor powerplay (23rd overall). Again, by way of comparison, Hemsky managed 5.93 PTS/60 and a 7.90 GFON/60 on a powerplay that wasn't significantly better.
Hossa had nice penalty-killing numbers (-4.41 ON/60), especially given that Atlanta's PK was ranked 27th overall, but do you really pay a player like Hossa big money to kill penalties? Of course not.
I'm shocked by how little I like Hossa's numbers this season. In all fairness, he's coming off 92 and 100 point seasons in the two years prior, so this past year was clearly not indicative of his average production level, but even so this is a guy talked about as an elite producer, and he simply isn't. He's a really, really, nice complementary player on a championship team, a guy worth 6, 6.5, maybe even 7M per season. I think he gets 8M/yr this summer to be the go-to guy on an offense-starved team (Boston, maybe). If I were Kevin Lowe, I wouldn't even bother calling him, because he won't be worth the money, the term, or the NTC he's almost certainly going to get. Marian Hossa should not be a player of interest to the Oilers.
Update: I wasn't happy with what I saw here in terms of Hossa's performance, so I've decided to also look at the season prior to this one.
TOI/60:
2006-07 - 14:16 EV, 2:07 SH, 5:17 PP
Hossa played the 6th hardest minutes among Thrashers forwards at even strength. The team score 3.46 GFON/60 and 2.66 GAON/60. He scored at a 2.67 PTS/60 clip. On the powerplay was where he really racked up the points, scoring at a 6.09 PTS/60 rate, with the team putting up a +6.35/60 when he was on the ice (good for 1st on the Thrashers). He was also good on the penalty kill, with only a -4.97 GAON/60 rate. And I still wouldn't sign him at 8 million per year.
5 Comments:
Marian Hossa would be a good 2 year contract given the contracts of Gagner and Cogliano. Unfortunately he'd never consider that. Your right his numbers actually don't look that great and a long term contract seems too risky.
I've read that Hossa would consider Boston because he is friends with Chara. They also have Marc Savard who centered Hossa in 05-06. Why Hossa wouldn't want to play with Crosby for the next 7 years is beyond me.
I wonder if the Oilers have any interest in Radim Vrbata? Plays either wing, and if I recall he put up some decent numbers in Phoenix last year (haven't had a chance to look at his Desjardins numbers)
Could he be asking for too much though?
I wonder if the Oilers have any interest in Radim Vrbata?
I kind of doubt it. He's a nice scoring option at even strength against select opponents, but he's surprisingly ineffective on the powerplay (2.90 PTS/60). He has been a consistent scorer since the lockout, though, and it isn't like he's all that old.
I realize this was posted a while ago, but I had to comment.
Hossa's Even Strength Scoring Rater (per hour) ranked him in the 76% percentile of all NHL forwards last season. He had a down season in 2007-08. His four previous seasons he was ranked 92%, 87%, 91%, 94% at Even strength.
His Power Play Scoring Rate ranking the last five seasons are as follows:
94%
98%
74%
93%
88%
Total Scoring Rate per Minute Percentile Ranking the last five seasons:
98%
98%
90%
95%
84%
Based on his body of work and his age (29) I say Hossa is clearly an elite forward who had a mild down year last season. Very few forwards have ranked in the top 10% of the NHL 4 out of 5 seasons.
Post a Comment