Thursday, August 28, 2008

Shooting: What and Where

As anyone who reads my writing knows, I'm an avid fan of the work done by Gabriel Desjardins at Behind the Net. One of the many things he does to improve game analysis is provide individual shooting data at even strength, taken from the individual game play-by-play logs at NHL.com.

Here's some interesting data on individual players:

Andrew Cogliano

Cogliano pretty evenly uses snap shots and wrist shots (he only fied two slap shots last season). He leads the Oilers in shortest average distance from the net (23.5 ft) when he shoots, which goes some way toward explaining his abnormally high shooting percentage. He also hits the net three times as often as he misses it, which is a very good total and indicative of some pretty precise marksmanship.

Sam Gagner

Gagner is interesting in his shot selection; he tried snap shots and slap shots 31 times each, to go along with 43 wrist shots. Unlike Cogliano, his ratio of hits:misses isn't so good (90 hits, 42 misses).

Dustin Penner

Penner led the Oilers in even-strength shots, both on and off goal (139 shots, 63 misses). He's also near the bottom of the pile in shooting percentage (only Stoll and Torres last year had lower numbers among forwards), something that suggests he'll be more effective this season.

Matt Greene

Excluding snap shots (where he hit the net three times on three tries), Matt Greene was more likely to hit the endboards than the net, recording 23 shots on and 25 missed.

Ladislav Smid

The Oilers defender most likely to put the puck on net, Smid recorded 0 even-strength goals last season. Given his uncanny (for a defenseman) accuracy (41 shots on net, 15 misses), I'd say he's due for a bump in goal-scoring next season.

Tom Gilbert

Of Oilers regulars, only Gilbert and Joni Pitkanen were as varied in their shot choice. Gilbert fired 31 wrist sots and 38 slap shots, and the volume of wrist shots probably had something to do with his excellent shooting percentage last season.

11 Comments:

Lowetide said...

Smid: Except he isn't. Buddy can't break glass at 4 feet.

Jonathan said...

Smid: Except he isn't. Buddy can't break glass at 4 feet.

Ouch. It hurts because it's true. He should be forced to live with Sheldon Souray until his shot power improves or he picks up a serious shoulder injury.

therealdeal said...

Cogliano is an interesting case to keep track of.

dstaples said...

Smid does have worst shot on the team, if not the league.


Anyway, very interesting stuff from Mr. Desjardins, and I wasn't aware of this.

Does it throw a major wrench into the theory that Cog's high shooting percentage can't be repeated?

Kent W. said...

Smid does have worst shot on the team, if not the league.

I see your Smid and raise you a David Hale. Hit shot is both weak AND inaccurate.

Sean said...

Ya that is interesting RE Cogliano. If the kid line stays together and Cogliano plays with playermakers like Nilsson and Gagner all season he could really have a good year. He doesnt seem to have the knack for how to get open yet but seems to create most of his chances off his speed. If he learns the former, look out. Unfortunately thats a big if - its one of those you have it or you dont traits.

dstaples said...

One thing I don't get is Desjardins'
goal totals. He has Cogzilla with 12 goals. But Cogs scored 18 goals total, 15 at even strength.

Other goal totals on his list don't quite add up either?

What's up? What am I missing?

Bruce said...

One thing I don't get is Desjardins'
goal totals. He has Cogzilla with 12 goals. But Cogs scored 18 goals total, 15 at even strength.


David: Desjardins ' table is titled "Individual Shooting: 5-on-5" In Cogliano's case, we know he scored 15 goals at evens, and we also know he scored at least three of those in 4v4 situations -- that amazing string where he broke up three straight games in OT. So presumably that is the difference.

dstaples said...

Thanks Bruce.


A quick look at league charts, and I see no obvious relationship between short shooting distance and high shooting percentage.

So a dip in Cogs' shooting percentage may still be expected, though I'm in the optimist camp with this kid. He's got the skill to score more than he did last year.

Jonathan said...

A quick look at league charts, and I see no obvious relationship between short shooting distance and high shooting percentage.

That's interesting. I'd more or less assumed that the two went hand in hand.

As for Cogliano, he did have a remarkable ratio of shots on net to missed shots, so I imagine he plays with a high shooting percentage number his entire career. Still, 18% is ridiculous- maybe he ends up in the 14-15% range, which would still be quite an achievement.

spOILer said...

I'd like to see the correlation between shot percentage and the ability to raise the puck.

You can stand at the edge of the crease and bang away all you like, but if you can't get the puck off the ice, more than likely you're going to get stoned while reducing your average shot distance.

The ability to go roof is seems to separate snipers from shooters, to my eye. I'd be curious to know if the data backs up that impression.